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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.