A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
